NFL Week 5 Betting Model Picks and Predictions | 2025

Top 6 Record (Only Includes Week 1 So Far): 14 - 10 | Win Percentage: 58.3% | ROI: 11.4%

Overall Record (Only Includes Week 1 So Far): 30 - 33 - 1 | Win Percentage: 47.6% | ROI: -9.1%

Top 6 Picks:

• NE +8.2

• CIN +10.4

• SF +8.5

• SEA -3.5

• TEN +7.7

• DEN +3.7

SF vs LA | 10/2/25

SF +8.5 | SF @ LA

Confidence: 52.2%

The model likely favors SF due to their ability to perform as a road underdog and potentially exploit matchup advantages. Factors such as the Rams' recent form, potential defensive weaknesses SF could exploit, or historical trends of close games between the two teams might have contributed to the model's moderate confidence in the 49ers covering the spread.

MIN vs CLE | 10/5/25

CLE +3.6 | MIN @ CLE

Confidence: 51.6%

The model may be favoring CLE to cover based on factors such as a potential defensive advantage, recent home underdog performance, or Minnesota's struggles in certain offensive or situational aspects. Despite Cleveland's recent ATS struggles, the model may see value in their ability to compete closely in this matchup, especially with the home field advantage factored in.

HOU vs BAL | 10/5/25

HOU -1.6 | HOU @ BAL

Confidence: 50.3%

The model may favor HOU due to their road performance metrics and potential matchup advantages on both sides of the ball, such as a strong offense against a vulnerable defense or vice versa. The moderate confidence level could be influenced by factors like recent form, coaching advantages, or specific game situations that give Houston an edge against Baltimore.

MIA vs CAR | 10/5/25

MIA -1.2 | MIA @ CAR

Confidence: 50.3%

The models likely favor MIA due to their moderate model confidence as a road favorite facing CAR. Key factors like road performance metrics and the potential edge in coaching may contribute to this pick. Despite recent ATS trends favoring CAR, the models may have identified specific matchup advantages or situational factors that give MIA a slight edge in covering the -1.2 spread.

LV vs IND | 10/5/25

LV +6.9 | LV @ IND

Confidence: 50.5%

The model likely favors LV to cover as a road underdog based on potential matchup advantages, such as offensive efficiency or defensive strengths against IND. LV's road performance metrics may also be favorable compared to their overall season performance. Despite recent ATS struggles, the calculated edge suggests the model sees potential for LV to perform better than market expectations in this specific game situation.

NYG vs NO | 10/5/25

NYG +1.6 | NYG @ NO

Confidence: 50.3%

The model likely favors NYG due to their performance as a road underdog and potentially stronger road metrics. It may have identified matchup advantages or situational factors indicating that NYG can cover the spread against NO. The moderate confidence level suggests that while there are factors supporting NYG, there may be some uncertainties or variables impacting the outcome.

DAL vs NYJ | 10/5/25

DAL -2.3 | DAL @ NYJ

Confidence: 50.6%

The model likely favors DAL to cover due to their stronger road performance metrics and the moderate confidence in road favorites. Factors such as offensive efficiency, defensive matchups, and coaching advantages may have contributed to the model's confidence level. Recent form, with DAL going 3-2 ATS in the last 5 games, could also influence the model's pick.

DEN vs PHI | 10/5/25

DEN +3.7 | DEN @ PHI

Confidence: 51.8%

The model likely favors DEN due to their road underdog status and moderate confidence in their ability to cover the spread. Factors such as Denver's recent ATS performance (3-2 in last 5 games) and Philadelphia's less favorable head-to-head record (0-1 in last 1 game) may have contributed to the model's confidence level. Additionally, the analysis likely considered Denver's road performance metrics and potential matchup advantages that could give them an edge in this game.

TEN vs ARI | 10/5/25

TEN +7.7 | TEN @ ARI

Confidence: 51.8%

The model likely favors TEN to cover based on their road underdog status and potentially undervalued performance metrics. Despite recent ATS struggles, the model may have identified matchup advantages or situational factors that could lead to a closer game than the market spread suggests. The moderate confidence level suggests a calculated risk based on specific game situations or trends that could favor TEN in this particular matchup.

TB vs SEA | 10/5/25

SEA -3.5 | TB @ SEA

Confidence: 51.9%

The models likely favor SEA to cover due to their recent form at 3-2 ATS, along with the home field advantage. Seattle's offense, led by Russell Wilson, could exploit Tampa Bay's defense, potentially giving them the edge to cover the spread. Additionally, Seattle's coaching experience and ability to make in-game adjustments may also contribute to the model's confidence in their ability to cover.

DET vs CIN | 10/5/25

CIN +10.4 | DET @ CIN

Confidence: 52.5%

The model likely favors CIN due to their status as a home underdog, providing value in a potential closer matchup than the market spread suggests. This pick may also be influenced by CIN's recent form against the spread and the consideration of home-field advantage, which could play a role in keeping the game within the predicted spread. The moderate model confidence suggests a calculated edge in CIN's favor despite being the underdog.

WAS vs LAC | 10/5/25

WAS +2.7 | WAS @ LAC

Confidence: 50.8%

The model likely favors WAS to cover due to their performance as a road underdog and potentially favorable road performance metrics. The 50.8% confidence suggests that the model sees Washington as having a competitive edge in this matchup, possibly due to their ability to perform well in similar game situations in the past. Additionally, the recent form of both teams, with Washington being 2-3 ATS in the last 5 games compared to LAC's 0-1 in the last 1 head-to-head, could also influence the model's confidence in this pick.

NE vs BUF | 10/5/25

NE +8.2 | NE @ BUF

Confidence: 54.4%

The model likely favors NE due to their recent 3-2 ATS performance, suggesting they are competitive against the spread. Additionally, being a road underdog provides motivation and potential value to cover the spread. Analyzing NE's road performance metrics and potential matchup advantages against BUF may have influenced the model's confidence level.

KC vs JAX | 10/6/25

KC -3.4 | KC @ JAX

Confidence: 50.5%

The model likely favors KC to cover due to their offensive firepower and ability to exploit Jacksonville's defensive weaknesses. The confidence in the road favorite pick could stem from Kansas City's success in high-scoring games and their ability to capitalize on JAX's struggles defending the pass. The recent form of both teams and the coaching advantage of KC could also contribute to the model's confidence level.