NFL Week 4 Betting Model Picks and Predictions | 2025
Top 6 Record (Only Includes Week 1 So Far): 11 - 7 | Win Percentage: 61.1% | ROI: 16.7%
Overall Record (Only Includes Week 1 So Far): 23 - 24 - 1 | Win Percentage: 51.6% | ROI: -6.6%
Top 6 Picks:
DAL +6.7
IND +3.5
KC +2.6
CLE +10.0
NYG +6.4
CIN +7.5
SEA vs ARI | 9/25/25
ARI +1.5 | SEA @ ARI
Confidence: 51.0%
The model likely favors ARI based on their recent ATS success (4-1 in last 5 games) and the fact that they are the home underdog, suggesting potential value in their +1.5 spread. The moderate model confidence could be influenced by Arizona's ability to keep games close, their improving form, and the historical competitiveness of matchups between these divisional rivals (ARI 5-5 in last 10 head-to-head).
MIN vs PIT | 9/28/25
PIT +2.5 | MIN @ PIT
Confidence: 50.8%
The model likely favors PIT due to their recent ATS success (3-2 in last 5 games), suggesting they may be undervalued by the market. Additionally, being a home underdog adds value to the pick, considering PIT's historical trend of covering in that situation. The 51% model confidence may also be influenced by the coaching advantage Pittsburgh holds or specific offensive/defensive matchups that favor the Steelers in this game against Minnesota.
WAS vs ATL | 9/28/25
ATL +1.0 | WAS @ ATL
Confidence: 50.8%
The model likely favors ATL due to their home underdog status, suggesting potential value in the line. Factors such as a moderate model confidence, home field advantage, and perhaps a perception that ATL's performance could improve given their recent ATS struggles but historical success against WAS may have contributed to the pick. This pick may also consider potential coaching advantages or specific game situations that could favor ATL in this matchup.
NO vs BUF | 9/28/25
NO +15.5 | NO @ BUF
Confidence: 50.2%
The model likely identified that New Orleans has historically performed better as a road underdog and that Buffalo may have vulnerabilities on both sides of the ball. Despite New Orleans' recent ATS struggles, the model may see an opportunity for them to cover based on matchup advantages in this specific game situation, potentially related to defensive strengths or Buffalo's offensive inefficiencies.
CLE vs DET | 9/28/25
CLE +10.0 | CLE @ DET
Confidence: 51.3%
The model likely favors CLE to cover +10.0 due to moderate confidence in their ability as a road underdog against DET. Factors such as road performance metrics, potential matchup advantages, and situational variables may suggest that CLE has the ability to keep the game within a 10-point margin. Despite CLE's recent 1-4 ATS record and DET's historical edge in head-to-head matchups, the model may see specific elements in this game that could lead to a closer outcome than the market spread indicates.
TEN vs HOU | 9/28/25
TEN +7.0 | TEN @ HOU
Confidence: 50.4%
The model likely identifies that Tennessee has historically performed better as a road underdog, making the +7.0 spread attractive. Despite Tennessee's recent ATS struggles, the model may give weight to specific road performance metrics, potential matchup advantages against Houston, or a belief in Tennessee's ability to keep the game close based on previous meetings between the teams.
CAR vs NE | 9/28/25
CAR +5.4 | CAR @ NE
Confidence: 50.1%
The model likely favors CAR to cover due to moderate model confidence and the opportunity as a road underdog. Potential factors could include Carolina's road performance metrics, recent ATS form, and possibly a perceived matchup advantage or situational edge against New England. The 50% confidence suggests a balanced view, indicating that while there are reasons to support CAR covering, there are also factors that could lead to New England covering the spread.
LAC vs NYG | 9/28/25
NYG +6.4 | LAC @ NYG
Confidence: 51.3%
The model likely favors NYG to cover due to moderate confidence and the value of being a home underdog. Potential factors could include the Giants' ability to exploit the Chargers' defensive weaknesses, recent form improvements, and the historical trend favoring NYG in the head-to-head matchup. Home field advantage may also play a significant role in the model's calculation, contributing to the confidence level in NYG covering the spread.
PHI vs TB | 9/28/25
TB +3.5 | PHI @ TB
Confidence: 50.0%
The model likely favors TB +3.5 due to their moderate model confidence, home underdog value, and the consideration of home field advantage. Potential factors contributing to this pick could include TB's recent ATS success (3-2 in last 5 games), potential matchup advantages, and the coaching advantage with Bruce Arians against a struggling Eagles team. The model may also factor in TB's ability to exploit specific game situations or defensive weaknesses of the Eagles.
IND vs LA | 9/28/25
IND +3.5 | IND @ LA
Confidence: 51.6%
The models likely favor IND to cover due to their recent performance ATS, suggesting they may be undervalued by the market. Additionally, the analysis of road performance metrics may indicate that IND has shown strength in similar away situations. LA's recent struggles in head-to-head matchups could also contribute to the model's confidence in IND's ability to cover the spread.
JAX vs SF | 9/28/25
SF -3.3 | JAX @ SF
Confidence: 50.8%
The model likely favors SF due to their moderate home field advantage, recent form improvements, and potential matchup advantages against JAX's defense. Factors such as San Francisco's offensive efficiency, defensive strength, and coaching prowess may contribute to the model confidence. Despite recent ATS struggles, the model may believe that SF has the necessary elements to cover the spread in this particular matchup.
BAL vs KC | 9/28/25
KC +2.6 | BAL @ KC
Confidence: 51.3%
The model likely favors KC due to their recent form as a home underdog with a moderate trend of covering the spread. The matchup advantages may include offensive firepower led by Patrick Mahomes against Baltimore's defense, potential home-field advantage, and historical success against the Ravens. The model's confidence level likely stems from these factors aligning in favor of the Chiefs covering the spread.
CHI vs LV | 9/28/25
CHI +0.9 | CHI @ LV
Confidence: 50.4%
The model likely favors CHI due to their recent road performance and the moderate confidence in their ability as an underdog. Factors such as defensive strength, coaching strategies, and potential mismatches could be contributing to the model's confidence level. Despite a close spread, the model sees an edge for CHI to cover based on these key factors and their ability to perform well in road games.
GB vs DAL | 9/28/25
DAL +6.7 | GB @ DAL
Confidence: 51.8%
The model likely favors DAL due to their home underdog status, potential for home field advantage, and the tight market spread. With moderate confidence, factors such as Dallas' ability to keep games close, potential matchup advantages on offense, and recent performance trends could contribute to the model's lean towards Dallas covering the spread against Green Bay.
NYJ vs MIA | 9/29/25
NYJ +2.7 | NYJ @ MIA
Confidence: 50.6%
The model likely favors NYJ due to their ability to perform well as a road underdog and potentially exploit weaknesses in MIA's game. Factors such as defensive matchups, recent form, and the opportunity for a competitive game situation may have influenced the model's confidence level. Despite recent trends favoring MIA in head-to-head matchups, the model sees an edge for NYJ in this specific game scenario.
CIN vs DEN | 9/29/25
CIN +7.5 | CIN @ DEN
Confidence: 51.1%
The model likely favors CIN to cover due to their recent ATS success (3-2 in last 5 games) and the fact that they are a road underdog facing DEN, which may present value. Additionally, the model could be considering factors such as Cincinnati's ability to keep games close on the road and Denver's inconsistent performance, giving CIN a reasonable chance to cover the +7.5 spread.