NFL Week 3 Betting Model Picks and Predictions | 2025
Top 6 Record (Only Includes Week 1 So Far): 8 - 4 | Win Percentage: 66.67% | ROI: 27.3%
Overall Record (Only Includes Week 1 So Far): 16 - 15 - 1 | Win Percentage: 51.6% | ROI: -1.4%
Top 6 Picks:
TEN +4.0
ATL -5.4
MIA +11.7
KC -6.0
CLE +7.7
HOU +1.4
MIA vs BUF | 9/18/25
MIA +11.7 | MIA @ BUF
Confidence: 51.0%
The model likely identified that Miami has performed relatively well as a road underdog and has shown competitive metrics in away games. It may also consider Buffalo's tendency to not cover high spreads consistently. Additionally, recent trends show Miami covering the spread in similar situations, enhancing the model's confidence in this pick despite Buffalo's historical head-to-head advantage.
ATL vs CAR | 9/21/25
ATL -5.4 | ATL @ CAR
Confidence: 51.1%
The models likely favor ATL to cover due to their road performance metrics and potential advantages in offensive matchups against CAR. Despite recent ATS struggles, ATL may hold an edge in coaching strategy or specific game situations that could lead to a calculated advantage on the road. The moderate model confidence suggests a close matchup, but factors like road favorite confidence and key offensive strengths likely contribute to the pick on ATL.
GB vs CLE | 9/21/25
CLE +7.7 | CLE @ CLE
Confidence: 50.9%
The model likely favors CLE to cover due to the combination of being a home underdog, moderate model confidence, and potentially undervaluing Cleveland's ability to keep the game within the +7.7 spread. Despite Cleveland's recent 0-5 ATS record, the H2H advantage in the most recent matchup might be a factor influencing the model's confidence in Cleveland's ability to cover against GB.
HOU vs JAX | 9/21/25
HOU +1.4 | HOU @ JAX
Confidence: 50.9%
The model likely favors HOU due to their performance as a road underdog and potentially identifying weaknesses in JAX's home performance metrics. Despite HOU's recent ATS struggles, their ability to cover as a road team and JAX's historical struggles in the matchup may have influenced the model's confidence in this pick. Additionally, coaching strategies, player injuries, or recent player performances could be contributing factors to the model's analysis.
CIN vs MIN | 9/21/25
MIN -3.0 | MIN @ MIN
Confidence: 50.1%
The model likely favors MIN due to their recent ATS success (3-2 in last 5 games) and historical head-to-head advantage over CIN (MIN 2-0 in last 2 meetings). The home field advantage for MIN could also be a significant factor in the model's confidence, along with potential offensive or defensive matchups that favor the Vikings in this game.
PIT vs NE | 9/21/25
NE +1.5 | NE @ NE
Confidence: 50.2%
The model likely favors NE due to their recent ATS performance, as they are 3-2 in their last 5 games. Additionally, being a home underdog adds value to the pick, as home field advantage is considered. The slight edge for NE could also stem from specific game situations or potential mismatches in offensive or defensive matchups against PIT.
LA vs PHI | 9/21/25
PHI -3.3 | PHI @ PHI
Confidence: 50.1%
The model likely favors PHI due to their moderate model confidence, home field advantage, and potential matchup advantages. Factors such as the Eagles' recent ATS performance, possibly improvements in key areas, or an advantageous coaching strategy may have influenced the pick. Despite recent head-to-head struggles against the Rams, the model sees enough favorable elements to support PHI covering the spread.
NYJ vs TB | 9/21/25
NYJ +6.6 | NYJ @ TB
Confidence: 50.7%
The models may see value in the NYJ +6.6 pick due to the Jets performing better as a road underdog and possibly having favorable road performance metrics. Despite recent poor ATS performance, there might be underlying factors suggesting they can cover, such as potentially matching up well against TB's weaknesses or being able to exploit specific game situations. The model's 50.7% confidence level indicates a calculated edge, emphasizing the perceived advantages the Jets have in this matchup.
IND vs TEN | 9/21/25
TEN +4.0 | TEN @ TEN
Confidence: 51.2%
The model likely favors TEN to cover due to their home underdog status and the potential impact of home-field advantage. Despite recent struggles ATS, the model may see value in the Titans bouncing back in a divisional matchup against the Colts, considering historical head-to-head trends and the potential for a competitive game scenario.
LV vs WAS | 9/21/25
LV +3.5 | LV @ WAS
Confidence: 50.4%
The model likely favors LV to cover due to their recent ATS success and the opportunity as a road underdog. Factors such as improved road performance metrics, potential offensive efficiency against Washington's defense, and coaching strategies may contribute to the model's confidence level. Additionally, the historical head-to-head performance showing LV's advantage in recent matchups could also influence the model's pick.
DEN vs LAC | 9/21/25
DEN +2.7 | DEN @ LAC
Confidence: 50.2%
The model likely favors DEN to cover due to their performance as a road underdog and potential advantages in road performance metrics. Factors such as defensive efficiency, turnover differentials, or red zone proficiency may also contribute to the model's confidence level. Despite recent ATS struggles and LAC's historical success head-to-head, the model sees enough indicators to suggest DEN has a solid chance of covering the spread in this matchup.
NO vs SEA | 9/21/25
NO +7.4 | NO @ SEA
Confidence: 50.2%
The model likely favors NO +7.4 due to their ability to perform well as a road underdog and potentially exploit weaknesses in Seattle's defense. Despite recent struggles, New Orleans may have statistical advantages on the road that the model is accounting for, along with a potential for a bounce-back performance. Additionally, Seattle's recent inconsistency could play into the model's assessment of this matchup.
DAL vs CHI | 9/21/25
CHI +0.6 | CHI @ CHI
Confidence: 50.6%
The model likely favors CHI due to their moderate model confidence, home underdog status, and the inherent value of playing at home. Potential factors driving this pick could include recent ATS trends, home field advantage, and historical head-to-head performance. The model might also consider specific matchup advantages or coaching strategies that give CHI a slight edge in this game against DAL.
ARI vs SF | 9/21/25
SF -2.6 | SF @ SF
Confidence: 50.1%
The model likely favors SF due to their moderate model confidence and home field advantage. Factors such as the 49ers' defensive strength against the Cardinals' offense, recent form, coaching advantages, and the importance of the game situation may contribute to the model's confidence in SF covering the spread. Despite recent ATS trends, the model may see favorable matchups or situational factors in this specific game that give the 49ers the edge.
KC vs NYG | 9/21/25
KC -6.0 | KC @ NYG
Confidence: 50.9%
The model likely favors KC to cover due to their overall road performance metrics, despite their recent 2-3 ATS record. Factors such as offensive firepower, defensive matchups, and coaching advantages may have influenced the model's 50.9% confidence level. The moderate confidence suggests that while KC has strengths that could lead to a cover, there are also potential risks or uncertainties that may impact the outcome.
DET vs BAL | 9/22/25
BAL -4.8 | BAL @ BAL
Confidence: 50.6%
The model likely favors BAL due to their recent 5-0 ATS record, indicating strong form and consistency. Additionally, being the home team provides them with a familiar and supportive environment, contributing to the model's confidence in BAL covering the spread. DET's lackluster performance and BAL's momentum may also influence the model's stance.